Belgium, (Brussels Morning Newspaper) The EU is now reportedly seen as “stronger” than one year ago, according to a new survey.
Even people in Britain – now a non EU country – feel the Union has emerged from the conflict in Ukraine as a stronger entity.
This is the main conclusion of a major opinion polling from nine EU member states, regarding the conflict, as well as perceptions of the EU, China and Russia.
The findings, just out, are timely: they come on the eve of a key EU summit this week in Brussels on the Ukraine war and just after this week’s meeting comes against a backdrop of high-level talks between the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.
The EU summit, starting on Thursday, will also debate the competitiveness of the European single market and the economy; and items relating to energy prices and logistics.
The following EU countries were polled: Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Romania and Spain.
The study says that almost everywhere – with the sole exception of Italy – the prevailing opinion is that the EU is strong or stronger rather than weak or weaker than people had previously thought.
This position was most evident in Portugal, where 58% of respondents expressed this view, but also a majority, or plurality, view in: Denmark (55%), Poland (54%), Romania (51%), Estonia (48%), Spain (47%), Germany (45%) and France (41%). Few Europeans – 19% on average – say that the EU is weaker than they previously thought.
Even in Britain, which is no longer an EU member state following Brexit, the prevailing view is that the EU is in a stronger, or as strong, state than one year ago (40% “stronger” or “as strong”, compared to 32% “much weaker” or “was and is still weak”).
Commenting, Mark Leonard, co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. said, “One year into the conflict, we can see that the Kremlin’s expectations were wrong.”
“The survey shows that, against expectations, European publics’ views on the war have converged rather than diverged. Compared with May last year, the proposition that the war between Russia and Ukraine should end as soon as possible, even if that means Ukraine losing part of its territory to Russia, is no longer that popular among Europeans.
“The opposite idea—that Ukraine should regain all its territory, even if that means a longer conflict—currently prevails in Europe on average, and Europeans also report an improved perception of European and American power—while many see Russia as weaker than they had previously thought.”
Across the political spectrum, in Europe, the survey claims there is a broad consensus that Ukraine should reclaim all the territory it has lost in the conflict. ECFR found comparable levels of support between voters of Emmanuel Macron’s liberal La Republique en Marche (LREM) and Poland’s right-wing, nationalist Law and Justice Party, on Ukraine’s right to reclaim all of its lost territory from this conflict, at 61% and 62% of respondents, respectively. Germany’s Greens are similarly “hawkish” on this point, with a plurality (48%) expressing this view.
The poll says that Russia is widely viewed as an “adversary” or “rival” by every surveyed European country.
This position was most pronounced in Denmark (82%), but was also strong, and a majority viewpoint, in Estonia (79%), which shares a land-border with Russia, as well as Poland (79%), Britain (77%), Germany (69%), Spain (65%), France (59%), Portugal (57%) and Italy (54%). The response was softest in Romania, where 44% (still a plurality) expressed the view that Russia is “adversary” or “rival”.
ECFR’s dataset claims to also reveal that, compared to May 2022, there has been a bloc-wide increase in concerns regarding day-to-day costs. These fears, about making ends meet, were most pronounced in Italy, where 34% of those surveyed (up from 25%) identified this as a chief concern with regards to the war between Russia and Ukraine. There were also marked increases in Spain (21% in May 2022 to 28% in January 2023), France (27% to 31%), Portugal (25% to 29%) and Romania (17% to 21%).
Of the countries polled, those in Germany were the least concerned this year, with 23% (down from 27% in May 2022) viewing the deployment of nuclear arms as their chief concern with regards to the war between Russia and Ukraine. A decline in nuclear fears was most noteworthy in France (from 34% to 26%), but also evident in Britain (37% to 32%) and Spain (36% to 31%).
The poll was conducted by YouGov and Datapraxis.
Ivan Krastev, the chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia, noted, “The reasons for the increased support for Kyiv probably diverge from country to country, but at least four factors are of particular importance.
“Putin’s strategy of mass destruction has morally outraged most Europeans. Ukrainian military victories in the summer and autumn of last year have convinced many that Kyiv can win the war.
“A warm winter and European governments’ successful handling of the energy crisis have increased the sense that the EU is stronger than many believed. And U.S. President Joe Biden’s determination to do what it takes not to allow Russia to win is another critical factor for the new European position on the war.”
