Belgium (Brussels Morning newspaper) On Saturday, October 7, 2023, a Jewish holy day, more than 1000 Palestinian fighters, affiliated with Hamas, penetrated the security wall (fence) from the Gaza Strip and entered the territory of the State of Israel. They also landed from the sea and a few paraglided into Israeli territory.
They took over several villages and towns, killed about 700 Israelis, most of them civilians, including women and children, and abducted more than 130 Israelis, both military personnel and civilians, including children. Another 2,400 are wounded, about 400 of them in critical condition.
At the time of writing, 48 hours later, some of the infiltrators are still within Israel’s territory and in control of several townships.
The whole campaign was accompanied by volleys of thousands of rockets that overwhelmed Israel’s defense system, the Iron Dome, and caused damage in multiple major cities, including Tel Aviv, Ashkelon, and Jerusalem.
There was a massive failure of Israeli preemptive intelligence and the military response once the incursion commenced.
The official reason given by Hamas for the “al-Aqsa Flood” military campaign, is the growing number of Jewish visitors to the al-Aqsa mosque, a Muslim holy site in Jerusalem.
The true reasons are:
1. The decline in the popularity of Hamas within Gaza and the West Bank owing to egregious failures of governance, growing internecine violence, and corruption of its officials; and
2. The imminent normalization of Israel’s relations with the rest of the Arab world – including, soon, with Saudi Arabia – at the expense of the overlooked interests of the Palestinians.
Hamas wants to burnish its credentials as an organization that is fighting for the liberation of Palestine from the Israeli much-hated occupation and, at the same time, restore the Palestinian problem as the main item on the agendas of Middle Eastern, Arab, Muslim, and US politics.
Similar to al-Qaeda and ISIS before it, Hamas deployed and depleted all its assets in one last desperate and self-destructive convulsive attempt. It will not be able to repeat this operation, even if it were to survive.
Hamas intends to use the hostages as human shields and then trade them for Palestinian militants held in Israeli prisons. Executions of hostages can also serve to sway public opinion and to score tactical goals in negotiations with Israel in the future.
Hezbollah in Lebanon has already rocketed targets in Northern Israel, but it was a limited and symbolic attack. Remarkably, there were also no major disturbances in the West Bank or inside Israel. Fatah, the main political movement in the West Bank, must be delighted with the self-immolation of its archenemy, Hamas.
If Israel were to maintain the proportionality of its reaction (operation “Iron Swords”), the conflict will remain contained.
But, if Israel were to try to reconquer the Gaza Strip and eradicate Hamas, it would find itself at war with all the Palestinians, wherever they are – as well as with Iran and, possibly, Russia. Another outcome could be terrorist attacks in Europe on Jewish targets.
It all depends on Israel’s self-control and statesmanship now. The answer to terrorism should never be state terrorism.
Israel will cleanse the last remaining cells of Palestinian fighters within its territory and then invade the Gaza Strip after heavy aerial bombardments. This war is going to last weeks or months.
Israeli society has never been more divided and polarized: over the anti-democratic judicial reforms pushed by the criminally indicted Prime Minister Netanyahu and his corrupt and extremist allies; over the mushrooming political power of the ultra-Orthodox Jews; over the military; over income inequality and the unsustainable cost of living; over left vs. right; over the never-ending conflict with the Palestinians; and over many more issues of identity and values.
This war will unite the Israelis in the very short term: a government of national unity is already in the works. But then it will serve to divide Israel and break it apart as the lessons of this surprise attack are learned. Israel is headed to a slow-motion internecine civil war. Its very survival is at risk.
In the process of this soul-searching and power play, Israel will become a way more authoritarian polity, militarized, and ostracized. This siege mentality will result in rogue actions by Israel throughout the oil-rich region. An era of extreme danger is upon us all, wherever we may be.
Opinions expressed in the op-ed section are solely those of the individual author and do not represent the official stance of our newspaper. We believe in providing a platform for a wide range of voices and perspectives, even those that may challenge or differ from our own. As always, we remain committed to providing our readers with high-quality, fair, and balanced journalism. Thank you for your continued support.Sincerely, The Brussels Morning Team
